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With the current Supra likely done after 2026, what form will Toyota’s performance cars take going forward? We follow the clues.
Supra Canceled?
BMW has made it official, production in Austria of the Z4 will conclude next year (with 2026 models). Why this matters for the Toyota Supra is the two cars share their chassis and engine. In fact, if it weren’t for the partnership between BWM and Toyota, the current/fifth-gen Supra would never have been a thing.
Toyota has yet to say anything official on the fate of the Supra, but without BMW doing the heavy lifting, it would seem the Supra is doomed as well. It’s hard to imagine Toyota pouring the funds into continuing the Supra in its current form on its own. Even if they were to find another company interested in collaborating, this would likely mean a new round of R&D to engineer the car from the ground up, a costly venture indeed.
Could the GR86 be Chopped Too?
This month’s/quarter’s sales numbers further muddied the waters for Toyota’s sports cars. The Toyota GR86 and Subaru BRZ are the product of another joint venture. The GR86 saw a major jump in year-over-year sales in Toyota’s quarterly sales report, up just over 104 percent. Seems great, no? The picture turns darker once we look at the BRZ’s numbers for May. Subaru managed to move just 227 BRZ’s in May, compared to over 1,900 GR86s for Toyota.
Unfortunately, like the Z4 and Supra, the BRZ and GR86’s fates are inextricably intertwined. If Subaru, who happens to make the cars’ identical 2.4L flat-four, pulls the plug on the BRZ for poor sales, the GR86 is unlikely to survive. With the imminent demise of the Supra and the GR86’s future in doubt, what does the future look like for Toyota’s performance cars? A glance at the company’s electrification plans tells us a lot.
Toyota’s Electrification Plans
Over the last few years, Toyota’s hybrid-first/go-it-slow approach to electrification was met with a mixture of bemusement and outright skepticism. While the rest of the industry rushed to market with EVs and announced ambitious plans to jettison internal combustion, Toyota said they felt hybrids were the smarter play, as neither the demand nor the infrastructure were there for broad EV adoption.
Snap to the present and Toyota’s approach has been vindicated as hybrid sales have jumped in late 2023 and thus far in 2024 while the growth of EV sales has slowed significantly. Toyota is executing a two-pronged approach to electrification. First, they do plan to bring another 10 BEV (battery electric vehicles) to global markets by 2026, aiming high at a sales target of 600,000 units worldwide in 2025. New battery tech (including on-going development of solid-state batteries), modular designs, and giga-casting techniques (S&P Global has a good explainer here) will all play a part in Toyota getting cheaper, more efficient EVs to market in the near future.
And yet, Toyota’s Chairman Akio Toyoda has said the company foresees BEVs comprising no more than 30 percent of total sales while electrified vehicles would comprise some 70 percent of total sales. That 40 percent gap represents Toyota’s big push toward hybrids. The company’s philosophy is best understood by their 1:6:90 rule. Toyota says the same raw materials that would go into building one EV can be spread across six plug-in hybrid vehicles or 90 hybrid vehicles with the greatest dent in de-carbonization represented by the latter. Toyota also plans to offer a hybrid option for all nameplates among both Toyota and Lexus brands by the end of 2025 (for the 2026 model year).
So, what’s all that means for Toyota performance cars? You guessed it, new electrified powertrains, and probably new or returning nameplates to go with them.
Toyota’s FT-Se Performance EV Concept
Last year, Toyota unveiled their new FT-Se concept, aka the Future Toyota Sports Electric, a distinctly MR2/mid-engine-like electric sports car. Given the name and the timing, the FT-Se offers a lot of insight as to where Toyota’s performance cars are heading.
The first thing you’ll note about the FT-Se is its mid-engine proportions which harken back to those of the MR2, Toyota’s erstwhile mid-engine sports car from the 1990s and early aughts. You’ll also notice the FT-Se had large air intakes out front, despite being a BEV (according to its own badging). Those intakes are there to cool the car’s battery pack during spirited driving, like say on a track. There are even more vents built into the rear quarter panels that deploy at an angle to gulp in even more air for battery cooling.
Toyota’s current battery technology plan involves a rapid progression from today’s battery packs to new “performance” packs that offer greater range and efficiency coming in the next year or two. These are to be followed by “popularization” packs that further increase efficiency while reducing costs up to 40 percent over Toyota’s current batteries. By 2026, Toyota hopes to have “High Performance” packs in production that will increase range up to 600 miles on a single charge and enable rapid charging times. It’s these “High Performance” batteries that Toyota would be placing in the FT-Se. All this is to be followed by solid-state batteries, which Toyota hopes to deploy in production cars by 2027 or early 2028.
In addition to the cooling and Hi-Po batteries, the FT-Se has advanced aerodynamics that enhance both efficiency and aesthetics. Design team lead Hideaki Iida says they took inspiration from the wind-swept undulations of sand dunes for the design of the car’s rear fenders and rear deck. Indeed, the car’s lines swoop and fold for a blend of Ferrari-like sensuousness and “the future is now” Bladerunner origami EV.
Toyota says the FT-Se features light-weight steel, aluminum, and carbon fiber to minimize weight. A smaller, more efficient battery pack positioned mid-ship should help in delivering MR2-like handling characteristics, ones that have remained elusive for electric-only sports cars.
Toyota’s Electric Future
Now for the speculation part. The FT-Se has not yet been confirmed, but if it does make it to production, don’t be surprised if it carries the MR2 name. Resurrecting old, venerable nameplates is de rigueur for automakers these days, and has shown itself to be successful for everything from the Ford Bronco to the Supra.
Allow me to go out on an even shakier limb and suggest that Toyota could see fit to bring back the AE86, in design and spirit, if the current GR86 were to meet its demise. The AE86 is of course another venerated Toyota nameplate, this one especially important to fans of the classic Initial D anime series. Hyundai’s upcoming, but low volume N Vision 74 shows us a potential template. Borrow some of those boxy Giorgetto Giugiaro lines and your choice of ICE (internal combustion engine) or hybrid powertrains. The Lexus LC 500 has its V8 and V6-hybrid, a new AE86 could offer a RWD drift monster with either the GR Corolla’s 1.6L turbo three-cylinder or a potent plug-in hybrid system.
Whether it’s a re-imagined Supra, a hybrid GR86, or a new all-electric MR2, the future of Toyota’s performance cars looks bright.
